Is the loss caused by AI Overviews?

Not provably. Ahrefs describes its figure as a correlation, and Seer says it cannot prove cause. Seer also saw organic CTR fall 41% on queries without AI Overviews, which it attributes to people looking for answers elsewhere before Google. Treat the numbers as the best available estimates of the size of the shift, not as an exact attribution.

Does being cited in an AI Overview help?

In Seer’s Q3 2025 data, organic CTR was 35% higher when a brand was cited in the AI Overview (0.70%) than when it was not (0.52%). Seer notes it cannot show that citation causes the difference. Pew found only 1% of visits clicked a link inside an AI summary, so citation is better thought of as visibility than as a traffic source.

Which results lose the most?

The highest ones. In Ahrefs’ December 2025 data, the estimated CTR loss with an AI Overview was 58% at position 1, 50.8% at position 2 and 19.4% at position 10. Pew also found AI summaries appear mostly on longer, question-style searches, so informational content is most exposed.

What should a business do about it?

Treat clicks as one measure among several: track impressions, brand searches and AI-assistant traffic separately, and invest in being the clearest source for the questions your buyers ask. Google’s guidance is that no special optimization is needed beyond helpful, people-first content that is indexable.

What does “zero-click” mean?

A zero-click search is one that ends without a click to any website. SparkToro found 58.5% of US Google searches ended without a click to the open web in its panel data. That figure counts all causes, including answers shown in search features, not only AI Overviews.

Do the studies agree on how big the loss is?

Not exactly. They measure different things: click-through rate on a fixed set of queries, share of sessions that end, or share of searches that show an AI answer. We show each result with its sample and date so you can see why the numbers differ, and we do not average them.

Do all kinds of search lose clicks equally?

No. Pew found 60% of searches that begin with a question word produced an AI summary, against 8% of one- or two-word searches. Question-shaped, informational searches are the most exposed, and local or transactional searches the least.

How should I measure the effect on my own site?

Compare impressions, clicks and click-through rate in Google Search Console by query type over time, and separate branded from unbranded queries. A falling click-through rate with steady impressions is the typical signature. Track enquiries and revenue as well, since fewer clicks can still mean the same number of customers.

Is it worth chasing AI citations if clicks are falling?

Seer found cited brands kept a higher click-through rate than uncited ones on queries that show an AI Overview. That supports treating citation as a defensive and visibility goal, though the study cannot prove that citation caused the difference.

The Open Index · Clicks

What AI answers do to your clicks.

Five studies, four research teams, one direction: when an AI answer appears, fewer people click. The size of the loss depends on who measures, what they measure and when. Here is the evidence, side by side.

Headline number

58%

lower click-through for the top result when an AI Overview appears

Ahrefs, 2025 to 2026

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Written byKris GjorgjioskiKeyword research and industry benchmarks, Webtec Research
Checked byHristijan NajcheskiHead of SEO and AEO (technical and AI SEO), data verification

Updated October 15, 2026 · Edition 1Refreshed quarterly · next January 2027

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THE HEADLINE

Nearly twice the loss in nine months.

Ahrefs ran the same test twice, on the same 300,000 keywords design: half with an AI Overview, half informational keywords without.

34.5%

lower top-result CTR, March 2024 vs March 2025

58%

lower top-result CTR, December 2023 vs December 2025

HOW TO READ IT

A forecast, not a count.

Ahrefs estimates what the top result’s CTR would have been without AI Overviews, using the decline seen on similar keywords with no AI Overview, and compares it with what happened. In the update, position 1 CTR on AI Overview keywords went from 0.073 to 0.016, against a forecast of 0.037.^[2]

Limits: desktop CTR only, informational keywords, and the keyword groups are defined by their December 2025 status. The authors call it a correlation.^[1],[2]

Estimated CTR loss by position, with an AI Overview

Every position loses clicks, and the higher you rank, the more you lose. Position 10 loses about a fifth.

Position 158%
Position 250.8%
Position 346.4%
Position 438.8%
Position 532.6%
Position 630.5%
Position 729.7%
Position 828.8%
Position 929.7%
Position 1019.4%

SourceAhrefs · 2026

THREE WAYS TO MEASURE IT

Panel, query set, keyword set: the same story, different numbers.

Three independent designs. They disagree on size, and agree on direction.

What people did when an AI summary appeared

900 US adults, 68,879 Google searches, March 2025. Share of visits.

Clicked a result: no AI summary15%
Clicked a result: AI summary shown8%
Clicked a link inside the AI summary1%
Session ended: AI summary shown26%
Session ended: no AI summary16%

Share of visits to Google result pages

SourcePew Research Center · 2025

WHY THE NUMBERS DIFFER

Six reasons two honest studies can disagree by a factor of two.

Who is measured
Pew follows 900 real people. Ahrefs and Seer use Google Search Console data from sites and clients, which skews to the sites that use those tools.
Which queries
Ahrefs and Seer look at informational queries, where AI Overviews appear most. All-query averages would show a smaller change.
Which device
Ahrefs uses desktop CTR only. Mobile behaves differently, and mobile is most of Google’s volume.
What counts as a click
Pew counts visits to result pages; Seer and Ahrefs count clicks divided by impressions for a query set.
The baseline
Queries without AI Overviews also lost clicks in Seer’s data (41%). Where you start the comparison changes the answer.
When
AI Overviews expanded fast during 2025. A March measurement and a December measurement describe different products.

SO WHAT?

Clicks fall. Visibility does not have to.

Pew found only 1% of visits clicked a link inside an AI summary, and that browsing sessions ended more often after a summary (26% against 16%).^[4] Seer found cited brands kept a higher CTR than uncited ones, though it cannot show cause.^[3]

The practical shift: measure impressions, brand searches and assistant referrals, not only clicks, and aim to be the source the answer is built from. Google says no special optimization is required: be indexable and publish helpful, people-first content.^[6] Citations are not just top-10 pages either: only 38% come from there.^[7]

WHAT TO TRACK INSTEAD

Impressions and average position, not just clicks
Brand searches (people who now know you)
AI-assistant referral sessions in analytics
Whether assistants name you for your buyers’ questions
Enquiries and bookings from every source

How much traffic AI actually sends

OUR INTERPRETATION

What we make of the numbers.

The figures above are the studies’. This part is our reading of them, kept separate so you can disagree.

Webtec Research

Our interpretation

Kris GjorgjioskiKeyword research and benchmarks
Hristijan NajcheskiTechnical SEO, data checks

Figures: the cited studies
Reading: ours

The figures on this page come from the cited studies. This reading of them is ours, and you may weigh it differently.

Read together, the studies point one way: where an AI answer appears, fewer people click through to a website, and the drop is largest on the top organic results. The size differs by study and method, so we treat the loss as real but not precisely known.

For a business, the useful distinction is between queries that are about information and queries that are about a decision. Information queries are being answered in place, so the commercial value of ranking for them is falling. Decision queries, such as pricing, comparisons and local choices, still send visitors who are ready to act. That is where measurement and effort should go first.

We would not plan around a single percentage. We would plan around the direction: build pages that answer the question well enough to be cited, and make the next step after the answer easy to find.

Split your reporting into informational and decision queries
Watch click-through rate and conversions together, never clicks alone
Aim to be the cited source on your highest-value questions

Cite this page.

Charts have CSV downloads. Please link back and credit Webtec Research.

CITE THIS PAGE

Webtec Research. (2026, October 15). What AI answers do to clicks: five studies compared. The Open Index by Webtec. https://www.trywebtec.com/resources/index/ai-search-click-impact/

Webtec Research. “What AI answers do to clicks: five studies compared.” The Open Index by Webtec, 15 Oct. 2026, https://www.trywebtec.com/resources/index/ai-search-click-impact/.

@misc{webtec_open_index,
  author = {{Webtec Research}},
  title = {What AI answers do to clicks: five studies compared},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  howpublished = {The Open Index by Webtec},
  url = {https://www.trywebtec.com/resources/index/ai-search-click-impact/}
}

<a href="https://www.trywebtec.com/resources/index/ai-search-click-impact/">What AI answers do to clicks: five studies compared</a> (The Open Index by Webtec)

Questions about click impact.

Question 1 of 10

How much do AI Overviews reduce clicks?

Estimates range widely because studies measure different things. Ahrefs found the top result’s click-through rate was 34.5% lower on keywords with an AI Overview in a March 2025 comparison, and 58% lower in a December 2025 re-run. Seer Interactive saw organic CTR on informational queries fall from 1.76% to 0.61% when an AI Overview appeared, between June 2024 and September 2025. Pew found people clicked a regular result in 8% of visits with an AI summary and 15% without.

SOURCES

Sources and notes

7 sources on this page: 2 independent or official (grade A) and 5 vendor or agency studies with a disclosed method (grade B). Numbers in brackets in the text match the numbers below. We read every figure on the source’s own page. How we grade sources.

1
Ahrefs
AI Overviews Reduce Clicks by 34.5%
Vendor studyGrade BPublished 2025-04-17
Read the source
What we use:
The first measurement of click loss for the top result when an AI Overview appears.
Period:
March 2024 vs March 2025
Sample:
300,000 keywords: 150,000 with an AI Overview and 150,000 informational keywords without one.
Read with care:
Desktop CTR, informational keywords, from Google Search Console data. Correlation, not proven cause.
2
Ahrefs
Update: AI Overviews Reduce Clicks by 58%
Vendor studyGrade BPublished 2026-02-04
Read the source
What we use:
The re-run: 58% lower top-result CTR, and the loss by position from 1 to 10.
Period:
December 2023 vs December 2025
Sample:
300,000 keywords (150,000 with an AI Overview, 150,000 without), Google Search Console data.
Read with care:
Desktop only; keywords grouped by their December 2025 AI Overview status; correlation, not proven cause.
3
Seer Interactive
AIO Impact on Google CTR: September 2025 Update
Agency studyGrade BPublished 2025-11-04
Read the source
What we use:
Organic and paid CTR with and without AI Overviews, and the effect of being cited.
Period:
June 2024 to September 2025
Sample:
3,119 informational and educational search terms across 42 organizations; 25.1M organic and 1.1M paid impressions.
Read with care:
Retrospective cohort; paid sample is small; the page has small internal inconsistencies, so we use the Q3 2025 averages and endpoint values.
4
Pew Research Center
Google users are less likely to click on links when an AI summary appears in the results
Independent researchGrade APublished 2025-07-22
Read the source
What we use:
Click and session behaviour with and without AI summaries; share of searches with a summary; which sources summaries cite.
Period:
March 2025
Sample:
900 US adults tracked in KnowledgePanel Digital; 68,879 Google searches.
Read with care:
A US panel; does not measure publisher revenue.
5
SparkToro (data from Datos)
2024 Zero-Click Search Study
Vendor studyGrade BPublished 2024-07-02
Read the source
What we use:
The share of Google searches that end without a click, and clicks to the open web per 1,000 searches.
Period:
Sept 2022 to May 2024 (mobile from Jan 2024)
Sample:
A US and EU clickstream panel; no sample size stated.
Read with care:
The authors say voice and the Google app are not captured, so zero-click is likely under-counted. The post links to a newer study.
6
Google Search Central
AI Features and Your Website
Platform documentationGrade APublished 2025-12-10
Read the source
What we use:
What Google says is and is not required to appear in AI features.
Period:
Documentation, last updated Dec 10, 2025
Sample:
Google’s own guidance for AI Overviews and AI Mode.
7
Ahrefs
Update: 38% of AI Overview Citations Pull From The Top 10
Vendor studyGrade BPublished 2026-03-02
Read the source
What we use:
How many AI Overview citations come from pages ranking in the top 10.
Period:
AI Overviews as of January 2026
Sample:
863,000 keyword SERPs and 4M AI Overview URLs (Ahrefs Brand Radar).
Read with care:
Parsing method changed since the 2025 study, so the comparison is not like-for-like.

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A LIVING REFERENCE

Refreshed every quarter.

We re-check every source in January, April, July and October, add new studies and retire old ones. This is Edition 1 (October 15, 2026); the next is due January 2027. Changes are logged on the methodology page.